Sugar production is not a problem for sugar users, especially for professionals who can often touch the fields, but consumption is a relatively blind spot, so allow us to turn the lens, focus on sugar consumption, explore consumption models, analyze alternative sugar shadows. The scientific prediction of sugar consumption in this season.

 

Establishment process of sugar consumption model analysis

 

Normally, the sugar market is less attractive and less variable in terms of consumption than production, and its algorithm is relatively simple. It is generally believed that sugar sales are growing steadily, so an average growth rate (about 6% for example) will be given by examining the average consumption over the next few years to predict the next year's sales growth. However, when macroeconomic changes occur or sugar prices are in a rare position, this steady growth prediction model will fail, and it is necessary to introduce more sophisticated models.

 

If we analyze the structure of sugar consumption, about 65% of the sugar is used for food industry production, only a little more than 30% for civilian use and the family sugar has greater rigidity is not discussed here. As for the sugar used in food industry, the main method to establish the sugar consumption forecast model is to analyze the sugar content of each product in detail. Sugar-containing food industry mainly includes dairy products, carbonated beverages and juice drinks, canned, biscuits, frozen food, frozen staple food, candy and pastry industries. In terms of total weight alone, the output of the first five industries is the largest, but the weight of the product is not equal to the amount of sugar used.

 

The analytical train of thought for establishing a micro consumption model is as follows:

 

1. Sugar weight modeling for different industries: the key is to find out the proportion of sugar per unit weight product for each sugar industry.

 

2. Get the weight: the proportion and the sub-industry production (weight) product and processing to get a weight.

 

3. Consumption forecast in 2010: Give a forecast of industry growth and decline combined with the current growth rate of sugar food production.

 

4. Prediction results of the increase and decrease of sugar consumption in different industries: The change of sugar consumption in different industries can be obtained by multiplying the weights obtained by estimating the increment and decrease of industrial output.

 

5. Construct the conclusion of the sub-industry model: get the change forecast of the total consumption and relevant conclusions, and pay attention to the use of appropriate proportion to reduce consumption under the premise of high sugar price.

 

Step 1: sugar weight modeling for sub sectors

 

The key to modeling is to estimate the sugar content per unit weight of various products. Because of the complexity of the classification and market share of some foods, the weight estimation basis of important varieties is given here to ensure the relative credibility of the results. The data are derived from the various statistical data available, as well as relevant food formulations and raw materials. Books on production technology.

 

Some necessary explanations:

 

1. Dairy products: Because liquid milk accounts for 70% of the market share, and a large proportion of them are fresh milk, to know that the sweet taste of fresh milk is not by adding sugar, but the natural lactose components in milk. And milk powder is also divided into full-fat milk powder, full-fat sugar milk powder, prepared milk powder and skimmed milk powder and other categories, of which full-fat sugar milk powder accounted for a smaller market share. Therefore, the proportion of the sugar industry as a whole is not very high, and the individual estimate is about 3%. 2. Canned fruits: Canned fruits account for half of the market share and are the only canned fruits that require a lot of sugar. 3. Juices and juice drinks: the most sugary juice drinks occupy 75% of the market share, and the middle concentration of juice drinks and non-sugary pure juice only 25%, so the amount of sugar used in juice drinks is still relatively large.