At present, industrial sugar accounts for about 2/3 of the white sugar (information, market) consumption in China, and civil sugar consumption accounts for about 1/3. In recent years, industrial sugar has increased rapidly, while the growth rate of household sugar consumption is relatively stable. Therefore, the most important variable in sugar consumption is industrial sugar. In industrial sugar, the proportion of sugar used in dairy products, carbonated beverages, fruit juice drinks and canned sugar accounted for 32%, 22%, 21% and 10% respectively. The total amount of sugar used in dairy products, carbonated beverages, fruit juice drinks and canned sugar exceeded 80% of industrial sugar and accounted for 50% of total sugar consumption.

 

Affected by the financial crisis, China's food industry in the end of 2008 to the first half of 2009 also appeared a depression, especially in the dairy industry, in the "melamine" incident hit, production and sales of a substantial decline. However, since March, due to the impact of macroeconomic warming, the food industry output has been rising steadily, and in the near future there is a trend of accelerated ring-to-ring growth. In the first half of this year, the sales value of food manufacturing industry was 402.38 billion yuan, an increase of 15%, and that of beverage weaving industry was 339.28 billion yuan, an increase of 17.8%, 13.7% and 16.5% higher than that of national industrial sales respectively.

 

Specifically speaking, the output of sugar products increased by 3.35%, 32.3%, 23.55% and 27.28% respectively in June. The cumulative year-on-year increase in production in January-June also improved, with a narrow year-on-year decline in dairy products and carbonated drinks, and a year-on-year increase in carbonated drinks and canned drinks of 5.52% and 10.88%, respectively. The demand for downstream sugar products will maintain a cyclic growth momentum with the recovery of economy and consumption, and ensure the firmness of sugar prices in the third and fourth quarters from the demand side.

 

White sugar sales at the beginning of the squeezing season were significantly lower than last year's, partly because of the postponement of the squeezing season, resulting in a sharp decrease in production and sales at the beginning of the squeezing season (October last year - January this year), and partly because of the decline in demand for white sugar due to macroeconomic impact. However, monthly sales of sugar have begun to grow positively since February to May. Despite a similar decline of - 13.5% in June, it is difficult to see a significant decline in sugar consumption during the summer sugar boom season. It is estimated that sugar sales in July will probably be about 1.15 million tons, even though they will be about 1.5 million tons as of July. The accumulated sugar will reach 11 million 480 thousand tons and the sugar sales rate will reach 82.7%. This will give sugar price support from the supply side. At this stage, from the commodity fundamentals, the supply and demand of sugar is the most optimistic agricultural products (000061, stock bar), therefore, to continue this line of thinking, Nan Sugar, Gui Sugar, Tunhe will be sought after by the market, basic information will provide a sustained catalyst for sugar price rise.